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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|